War on the Climate: A Multitemporal Study of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the Israel-Gaza Conflict

Discover the significant greenhouse gas emissions from the Israel-Gaza conflict and its far-reaching implications

Paper reviewed:

Neimark, Benjamin and Otu-Larbi, Frederick and Larbi, Reuben and Bigger, Patrick and Cottrell, Linsey and de Klerk, Lennard and Shlapak, Mykola, War on the Climate: A Multitemporal Study of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the Israel-Gaza Conflict (April 01, 2025). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5274707 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5274707

Summary

A recent study reveals the staggering climate impact of the Israel-Gaza conflict, with total emissions exceeding the annual output of 102 countries. The research highlights the need for businesses and policymakers to consider the climate costs of military activities.

Key Findings

• The total greenhouse gas emissions from direct war activities during the 15-month Israel-Gaza conflict were estimated at 1,898,330.9 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e).
• When including pre-conflict and post-conflict related construction activities, the total emissions rise to 32,275,089 tCO2e, exceeding the annual emissions of 102 individual countries.
• The carbon costs of reconstructing Gaza and homes destroyed in Lebanon are substantial, with reconstruction emissions estimated at 29,751,814 tCO2e.
• The construction of Hamas' tunnel network and Israel's 'Iron Wall' contributed significantly to pre-conflict emissions, totaling 557,359 tCO2e.
• Conflict emissions were primarily driven by cargo flights, bombing and reconnaissance flights, tanks and vehicles, Israeli bombs and artillery, and aid delivery, totaling 1,886,591 tCO2e.

Implications

Business and Policy Implications

• Businesses and policymakers must consider the significant climate impacts of military activities and conflict-related emissions when developing strategies and policies.
• Mandatory reporting of military emissions through the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is crucial for understanding and mitigating the climate costs of war.
• Companies involved in the production and supply of military equipment and materials should be held accountable for their role in conflict-related emissions.
• Governments and international organizations should prioritize climate-resilient reconstruction efforts and consider the long-term environmental impacts of conflict.

Introduction

The recent Israel-Gaza conflict has highlighted the devastating humanitarian and environmental consequences of war. Beyond the immediate human toll, conflicts have significant and lasting impacts on the climate, driven by the intense greenhouse gas emissions associated with military activities. This research aims to quantify the climate costs of the Israel-Gaza conflict, providing a comprehensive analysis of emissions across three distinct periods: pre-conflict preparations, the conflict itself, and post-conflict reconstruction.

Background and Context

The Israel-Gaza conflict is part of a broader regional instability that has significant environmental and climate implications. Previous research has underscored the need for better understanding and accounting of military emissions, which are currently insufficiently reported under the UNFCCC. The global military sector is a substantial emitter of greenhouse gases, with estimates suggesting that it accounts for almost 5.5% of global emissions from 'day-to-day' activities, excluding conflict emissions. The conflict in Gaza has not only resulted in a humanitarian crisis but has also had far-reaching climate impacts, driven by the destruction of infrastructure, displacement of people, and intense military operations.

The conflict has expanded beyond Gaza, involving regional actors such as Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen, further complicating the environmental and climate footprint of the war. Understanding these impacts is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate the climate costs of conflict and promote sustainable reconstruction efforts.

The research employs a novel methodology, adapting the Scope 3+ framework to account for the wide-ranging emissions associated with military activities and conflict. By examining emissions across three time-horizons—pre-conflict, conflict, and post-conflict—the study provides a comprehensive picture of the climate costs of war.

Pre-conflict emissions were significant, driven by the construction of Hamas' extensive tunnel network and Israel's 'Iron Wall.' These infrastructure projects, while serving military purposes, have a substantial carbon footprint due to the use of concrete and steel.

During the conflict, emissions were primarily driven by military operations, including aerial bombardment, the use of artillery and tanks, and the delivery of aid and military supplies. The study estimates that these activities resulted in emissions of approximately 1.9 million tCO2e.

Post-conflict reconstruction is expected to be the largest source of emissions, driven by the need to rebuild destroyed infrastructure, including homes, schools, hospitals, and roads. The estimated emissions from reconstruction efforts are substantial, highlighting the long-term climate impacts of conflict.

The findings of this research have significant implications for businesses, policymakers, and international organizations. They underscore the need for greater transparency and accountability in reporting military emissions and highlight the importance of considering the climate costs of conflict in strategic decision-making.

As the international community moves forward, it is crucial to prioritize climate-resilient reconstruction efforts and to develop strategies that minimize the environmental impacts of conflict. This will require a coordinated effort from governments, businesses, and civil society to address the complex and interconnected challenges posed by the climate crisis and conflict.

The study's results will be continued in Part 2, where we will delve deeper into the implications of these findings and explore potential strategies for mitigating the climate costs of conflict.

Main Results

The study on the greenhouse gas emissions of the Israel-Gaza conflict provides a comprehensive analysis of the climate impacts of the war. The main findings are presented in three distinct time-horizons: pre-conflict, conflict, and post-conflict.

Pre-Conflict Emissions

The pre-conflict emissions are primarily attributed to the construction of fortifications, including Hamas' tunnel network and Israel's "Iron Wall." The estimated emissions from these activities are substantial, with a total of 557,359 tCO2e.

• Hamas' tunnel network: 264,135 tCO2e
• Israel's "Iron Wall": 293,224 tCO2e

Conflict Emissions

The conflict emissions are estimated to be 1,898,330.9 tCO2e, resulting from various activities such as:

• Cargo flights and shipping: 555,777.2 tCO2e
• Bombing and reconnaissance flights: 252,490.6 tCO2e
• Tanks and vehicles: 47,838.2 tCO2e
• Israeli bombs and artillery: 78,305.8 tCO2e
• Hamas rockets: 925.9 tCO2e
• Gaza electricity production: 131,791.4 tCO2e
• Hamas bunker fuels: 2,025.9 tCO2e
• Gaza aid delivery: 817,436.0 tCO2e

Post-Conflict Emissions

The post-conflict emissions are estimated to be 29,751,814 tCO2e, primarily resulting from the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure in Gaza.

• Reconstruction of homes: 26,856,643 tCO2e
• Road reconstruction: 2,435,501 tCO2e
• Collection of debris: 92,465 tCO2e

Methodology Insights

The study employs a robust methodology to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the conflict. The approach is based on the guidance provided by de Klerk et al. (2024) and involves:

1. Defining three distinct time-horizons: pre-conflict, conflict, and post-conflict.
2. Estimating emissions under Scope 1, 2, 3, and 3+ categories.
3. Using open-source data from media reports, aid organizations, and government reports.
4. Conducting a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to validate the data.

The methodology is innovative in its approach to accounting for conflict-related emissions and provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the climate impacts of war.

Analysis and Interpretation

The findings of the study highlight the significant climate costs associated with the Israel-Gaza conflict. The total emissions from the conflict are estimated to be 32,275,089 tCO2e, which is comparable to the annual emissions of 102 individual countries.

The study's results have important implications for policymakers, businesses, and civil society. The climate costs of conflict must be considered in strategic decision-making, and efforts should be made to minimize the environmental impacts of war.

Some key takeaways from the study include:

• The need for greater transparency and accountability in reporting military emissions.
• The importance of considering the climate costs of conflict in strategic decision-making.
• The need for climate-resilient reconstruction efforts in post-conflict scenarios.

The study's findings also underscore the importance of developing strategies to mitigate the climate costs of conflict. This can be achieved through:

• Improving energy efficiency and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
• Promoting the use of renewable energy sources.
• Implementing sustainable reconstruction practices.

Overall, the study provides a valuable contribution to the understanding of the climate impacts of conflict and highlights the need for a coordinated effort to address the complex and interconnected challenges posed by the climate crisis and conflict.

As the international community moves forward, it is essential to prioritize climate-resilient reconstruction efforts and develop strategies that minimize the environmental impacts of conflict. This will require a collaborative effort from governments, businesses, and civil society to address the complex challenges posed by the climate crisis and conflict. The study's results will inform and guide these efforts, providing a critical foundation for mitigating the climate costs of conflict and promoting a more sustainable and equitable future.

Practical Implications

The study on the greenhouse gas emissions of the Israel-Gaza conflict has significant practical implications for businesses, managers, and policymakers. The findings highlight the substantial carbon footprint of military activities and conflict-related emissions, which can inform strategies to mitigate these impacts.

Real-World Applications

The study's results can be applied in various real-world contexts:

• Conflict zones: Understanding the climate impacts of conflict can inform humanitarian responses and reconstruction efforts. For instance, the study's findings on the carbon costs of reconstruction in Gaza can guide the development of climate-resilient rebuilding strategies.
• Military operations: The study's results can inform military planning and operations to reduce their environmental footprint. This can involve adopting more fuel-efficient technologies, reducing waste, and implementing sustainable practices.
• Supply chain management: The study highlights the importance of considering the environmental impacts of supply chains, particularly in conflict zones. Businesses can use this information to develop more sustainable supply chain practices.

Strategic Implications

The study's findings have strategic implications for businesses and managers:

• Climate risk management: Companies operating in conflict zones or with supply chains affected by conflict should consider the climate risks associated with these activities. This can involve developing strategies to mitigate these risks and reduce their environmental footprint.
• Sustainable practices: Businesses can adopt sustainable practices to reduce their environmental impacts, such as using renewable energy, reducing waste, and implementing energy-efficient technologies.
• Stakeholder engagement: Companies should engage with stakeholders, including governments, NGOs, and local communities, to understand their concerns and develop strategies to address them.

Who Should Care

The study's findings are relevant to various stakeholders:

• Business leaders: Companies operating in conflict zones or with supply chains affected by conflict should be aware of the climate risks associated with these activities.
• Policymakers: Governments and international organizations can use the study's findings to inform policies and strategies to mitigate the climate impacts of conflict.
• NGOs and civil society: Non-governmental organizations and civil society groups can use the study's results to advocate for more sustainable practices and climate-resilient reconstruction efforts.

Actionable Recommendations

Based on the study's findings, the following actionable recommendations can be made:

1. Develop climate-resilient reconstruction strategies: Reconstruction efforts in conflict zones should prioritize climate-resilient practices, such as using sustainable building materials and designing infrastructure to withstand climate-related stresses.
2. Implement sustainable military practices: Militaries can adopt more sustainable practices, such as using fuel-efficient technologies, reducing waste, and implementing energy-efficient technologies.
3. Enhance supply chain transparency: Businesses should prioritize supply chain transparency, particularly in conflict zones, to reduce the risk of environmental degradation and human rights abuses.
4. Promote stakeholder engagement: Companies should engage with stakeholders, including governments, NGOs, and local communities, to understand their concerns and develop strategies to address them.

Implementation Considerations

When implementing these recommendations, the following considerations should be taken into account:

• Contextual factors: The specific context of the conflict zone, including the local environment, culture, and politics, should be considered when developing strategies to mitigate climate impacts.
• Stakeholder engagement: Engaging with stakeholders, including local communities, NGOs, and governments, is crucial to understanding their concerns and developing effective strategies.
• Monitoring and evaluation: Regular monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of these strategies is necessary to ensure they are achieving their intended outcomes.

Conclusion

The study on the greenhouse gas emissions of the Israel-Gaza conflict highlights the significant climate impacts of military activities and conflict-related emissions. The findings have practical implications for businesses, managers, and policymakers, informing strategies to mitigate these impacts. By developing climate-resilient reconstruction strategies, implementing sustainable military practices, enhancing supply chain transparency, and promoting stakeholder engagement, we can reduce the environmental footprint of conflict and promote a more sustainable and equitable future.

The study's results also underscore the need for greater transparency and accountability in military emissions reporting. As the international community moves forward, it is essential to prioritize climate-resilient reconstruction efforts and develop strategies that minimize the environmental impacts of conflict. By working together, we can mitigate the climate costs of conflict and promote a more sustainable future for all.