Do Armed Civilians Stop Active Shooters More Effectively Than Uniformed Police?

New research reveals armed citizens stop active shooters more effectively than police, reducing casualties and fatalities

When I moved from S. Korea to the United States, the single biggest thing that frightened me was guns. In the U.S., robberies and random shootings often involve firearms. Many Americans believe that armed citizens can protect themselves, and I became curious about whether this is actually true. Here’s what the research shows.

Paper reviewed:

Lott, John R. and Moody, Carlisle E., Do Armed Civilians Stop Active Shooters More Effectively Than Uniformed Police? (May 17, 2025). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5205768 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5205768

Summary

A recent study by John R. Lott and Carlisle E. Moody found that armed citizens stopped more active shooter incidents than police between 2014 and 2023, resulting in fewer casualties and fatalities. The presence of armed citizens significantly reduced the number of people killed and wounded, while police intervention had little to no effect on reducing casualties.

Key Findings

Armed citizens stopped more active shooter incidents than police did between 2014 and 2023, with 180 incidents stopped by armed citizens compared to 158 by police.
The presence of armed citizens significantly reduced the number of casualties in active shooter events. They decreased the number of people killed by 1.9 to 2.5 and wounded by 2.9 to 3.8.
In contrast, police intervention resulted in an increase in the number of people killed by 0.7 to 1.0 and had no significant effect on the number wounded.
States with Constitutional Carry laws experienced fewer casualties in active shooter events, suggesting that more armed citizens being present can lead to better outcomes.
Armed citizens were less likely to be killed or injured while stopping active shooters compared to police officers. The probability of an armed citizen being killed was 1.1%, whereas for police it was 16.5%.
Police officers were more likely to be killed or injured when stopping attacks in progress (16.5% killed, 60.1% injured) compared to when they apprehended attackers later (0.9% killed, 5.7% injured).

Implications

Business and Policy Implications

Businesses and policymakers should consider the benefits of allowing law-abiding citizens to carry firearms in public places, as this can lead to quicker intervention in active shooter events and reduced casualties.
The implementation of Constitutional Carry laws can be an effective strategy to increase public safety by enabling more citizens to defend themselves and others.
Law enforcement agencies should be aware of the tactical disadvantages they face when responding to active shooter events in uniform and consider strategies to mitigate these risks, such as plainclothes officers or rapid response training.
Companies and organizations should reassess their gun-free zone policies, as these areas are often targeted by attackers who expect victims to be defenseless.

Introduction

The FBI has been tracking active shooting cases since 2000, but until now, there has been no systematic examination of how uniformed police and civilians with concealed handgun permits perform in stopping these attacks. This research fills that gap by comparing the effectiveness of armed civilians and police in active shooter incidents between 2014 and 2023. The study highlights the critical role that armed citizens can play in preventing mass casualties and the tactical disadvantages faced by uniformed police.

Background and Context

Active shooter events are incidents where individuals attempt to kill people in public places, excluding those tied to robberies or gang violence. The literature on mass public shootings, which are a subset of active shooter events, has grown, but there has been a lack of research on the broader category of active shootings and the comparative effectiveness of police and armed civilians in stopping them. The presence of armed civilians can deter attackers and reduce casualties, as they are often already on the scene and can respond immediately. In contrast, uniformed police face challenges due to their visibility and the time it takes for them to arrive at the scene. The study's findings have significant implications for public safety policies, gun control laws, and the strategies employed by law enforcement agencies.

The data used in this study comes from the FBI's active shooter incident reports, supplemented by additional research to include cases that were not initially reported by the FBI. The analysis covers 531 active shooter incidents between 2014 and 2023, providing insights into the outcomes when armed civilians or police intervene. By examining the differences in effectiveness and risk between armed civilians and police, this research contributes to a more nuanced understanding of how to improve responses to active shooter events and enhance public safety.

The remainder of this part will delve into the methodology and results of the study, providing a comprehensive analysis of the data and the implications of the findings for businesses, policymakers, and law enforcement agencies.

Main Results

The study compares the effectiveness of armed civilians and police in stopping active shooter incidents. The data reveals that armed civilians stopped more active shooter incidents than police, with 180 cases stopped by armed citizens compared to 158 by police.

Key Findings

Armed citizens reduced the number of people killed by 1.9-2.5, while police increased the number killed by 0.7 to 1.0.
Armed citizens reduced the number of people wounded by 2.9-3.8, while police had no significant effect.
The total number of casualties was significantly lower when armed citizens stopped the attack, with a reduction of 4.8-6.2 casualties.

Data and Statistics

The study analyzed 531 active shooter incidents between 2014 and 2023. The data includes information on the number of people killed and wounded, as well as the response by armed citizens or police.

Methodology Insights

The study employed a negative binomial regression model to analyze the count data. The identification strategy exploited the exogenous variation in active shooter events.

Importance of Methodology

The use of a negative binomial model was crucial due to the skewed distribution of the dependent variables (number killed and wounded). The model accounted for overdispersion in the data.

Analysis and Interpretation

The findings suggest that armed civilians are more effective in stopping active shooter incidents and reducing casualties. The results are robust across different models and specifications.

Patterns and Trends

The presence of armed civilians significantly reduced the number of casualties.
Constitutional carry laws were associated with fewer casualties, suggesting that more armed citizens being present can improve public safety.
The media coverage of active shooter incidents was found to be biased, with more detailed reporting when police stopped the attack.

Implications for Businesses and Policymakers

The study's findings have significant implications for businesses and policymakers. By understanding the effectiveness of armed civilians in stopping active shooter incidents, businesses can develop more effective safety protocols. Policymakers can also use this information to inform gun control policies and laws related to concealed carry.

Competitive Advantages and Market Opportunities

Companies that prioritize public safety and develop effective response strategies to active shooter incidents can gain a competitive advantage. The study's findings can also inform the development of new products and services related to public safety and security.

Actionable Recommendations

Businesses: Develop comprehensive safety protocols that include training employees on response strategies to active shooter incidents.
Policymakers: Consider the implications of gun control policies on public safety and the effectiveness of armed civilians in stopping active shooter incidents.
Law Enforcement: Understand the tactical disadvantages faced by uniformed police and consider alternative strategies, such as plainclothes officers or community-based initiatives.

The study provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of armed civilians and police in stopping active shooter incidents. The findings have significant implications for businesses, policymakers, and law enforcement agencies, and can inform the development of more effective safety protocols and policies.

Practical Implications

The study's findings have significant practical implications for businesses, policymakers, and law enforcement agencies. The results show that armed civilians are more effective than uniformed police in stopping active shooter incidents, primarily due to their ability to respond quickly and catch attackers off guard.

Real-World Applications

Businesses and Organizations: Companies can develop comprehensive safety protocols that include training employees on response strategies to active shooter incidents. This may involve providing employees with the option to carry concealed firearms, if permitted by law, and training them on how to respond effectively.
Policymakers: Lawmakers can consider the implications of gun control policies on public safety and the effectiveness of armed civilians in stopping active shooter incidents. Policies that allow law-abiding citizens to carry concealed firearms, such as Constitutional Carry laws, may be effective in reducing the number of casualties in active shooter incidents.
Law Enforcement: Police departments can understand the tactical disadvantages faced by uniformed police and consider alternative strategies, such as plainclothes officers or community-based initiatives, to improve their response to active shooter incidents.

Strategic Implications

The study's findings have significant strategic implications for businesses and law enforcement agencies. By understanding the effectiveness of armed civilians in stopping active shooter incidents, organizations can develop more effective safety protocols and response strategies.

Businesses can prioritize employee safety by providing training and resources to help them respond to active shooter incidents.
Law enforcement agencies can adapt their response strategies to account for the tactical disadvantages faced by uniformed police, such as using plainclothes officers or community-based initiatives.

Who Should Care About These Findings?

Business Owners and Managers: Companies that prioritize employee safety and want to develop effective response strategies to active shooter incidents.
Policymakers: Lawmakers who are considering gun control policies and want to understand their implications on public safety.
Law Enforcement Agencies: Police departments that want to improve their response to active shooter incidents and reduce the risk of casualties.

Actionable Recommendations

Based on the study's findings, here are some actionable recommendations for businesses, policymakers, and law enforcement agencies:

Develop Comprehensive Safety Protocols: Businesses should develop comprehensive safety protocols that include training employees on response strategies to active shooter incidents.
Consider Constitutional Carry Laws: Policymakers should consider the implications of Constitutional Carry laws on public safety and the effectiveness of armed civilians in stopping active shooter incidents.
Alternative Response Strategies: Law enforcement agencies should consider alternative response strategies, such as plainclothes officers or community-based initiatives, to improve their response to active shooter incidents.

Implementation Considerations

When implementing these recommendations, businesses, policymakers, and law enforcement agencies should consider the following factors:

Training and Resources: Providing employees with the necessary training and resources to respond effectively to active shooter incidents.
Policy Implications: Understanding the implications of gun control policies on public safety and the effectiveness of armed civilians in stopping active shooter incidents.
Community Engagement: Building trust with the community and engaging with local stakeholders to develop effective response strategies.

Conclusion

Main Takeaways

Armed civilians are more effective than uniformed police in stopping active shooter incidents.
Constitutional Carry laws may be effective in reducing the number of casualties in active shooter incidents.
Law enforcement agencies face tactical disadvantages when responding to active shooter incidents.

Final Thoughts

The study's findings highlight the importance of considering the role of armed civilians in stopping active shooter incidents. By understanding the effectiveness of armed civilians and the implications of gun control policies, businesses, policymakers, and law enforcement agencies can develop more effective safety protocols and response strategies to reduce the risk of casualties in active shooter incidents.